Metcalfe’s Law Points To $1 Million Bitcoin By 2028
Bitcoin will be $1 million by 2028 according to a Bitcoin price prediction model based on math formula Metcalfe’s Law.
To date, the model has been accurate with past time frames, and the model creator is confident the logic of mathematics will usher in a Bitcoin to USD $1 million price in just 8 years.
Timothy Peterson, Global Macro Manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, who devised the math-formula predictor, uses past data to prove his Metcalfe’s Law model is as close to accurate as any other model.
‘Metcalfe’s Law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity and E=mc2,” said Peterson, who used past Bitcoin price predictions in which the model has been proven to be correct.
At the 2018 yearend, using his model Peterson predicted a $3,500 price, and was just short of the actual $3,782 price. While at the end of 2019 the math formula predicted Bitcoin to USD $7,000 – just short of the $7,243 price.
Peterson published the model thesis as an 80+ page academic paper back in 2018. Titled Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value the model suggests a price prediction of Bitcoin to USD $100,000 by January 2024.
Bitcoin to USD $1 Million by 2028?
Reaching a $1 million Bitcoin has become somewhat of a target, which few have dared to predict.
We all know John McAfee famously said he would eat his own dick if we didn’t see a Bitcoin to USD $1 million price by the end of this year. Time is running out for the infamous fugitive, but the question is what he would like for his main course.
Metcalfe’s Law model creator Timothy Peterson is adamant his $1 million Bitcoin price prediction is accurate, however, and recently posted a tweetstorm to explain how accurate the model has been.
The math formula based model suggested back in July 2020 that we would never see Bitcoin to USD less than $10,000. And late July, Bitcoin rose above $10,000 and has never fallen below it since.
Peterson asserted that once Bitcoin went above $11,000, there was a 90% chance that we would never see the price close below $11k again. The Bitcoin price has been hovering between $11-12k since, before finally breaking through the $12k barrier.
Peterson specifically says there is a 90% probability by 30 November that we will see a minimum Bitcoin to USD $12,000 price.
‘Write it down, screenshot it, whatever. I don’t care if you believe me or not,’ said Peterson in confident mood that his model will be proven accurate.
Using Metcalfe’s Law as a Bitcoin Price Prediction Tool
Metcalfe’s Law explains how the value of networks grow exponentially. Network effects typically account for 70% of the value of digital companies, and Metcalfe’s Law suggests that a network’s value is proportional to the square of the number of users in the network.
For example, if a network has 10 users, its inherent value is 100 (10×10=100). Add one more user, and the value is 121. Add another and the value jumps to 144.
Peterson’s model uses Metcalfe’s Law and says the price can be measured by the number transactions (supply) possible versus the Bitcoin wallets (demand), and is proportional to n-squared.
Looking at the chart we can see the price has pretty accurately followed the Gompertz curve that Metcalfe’s Law is detailing for past and future Bitcoin price predictions.
Metcalfe’s Law Contradicts Raoul Pal’s and PlanB’s Bitcoin Price Predictions
Peterson’s price prediction is fantastically bullish, and most Bitcoiners would happily see a Bitcoin to USD $1 million valuation within 8 years, but compared with other Bitcoin price predictions Metcalfe’s Law is, dare I say it, bearish.
PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model predicts Bitcoin to USD $288k by the peak of this halving cycle, which many believe to be around the end of 2021.
However, according to the Gompertz curve by the time PlanB predicts a Bitcoin to USD $288k, the Metcalfe’s Law model predicts a lower price of around $30,000. Still a 250% rise from today’s price.
Former Hedge Fund Manager Raoul Pal has also recently published his outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting we will see Bitcoin reach $1 million by 2025.
Permabull, Pal has been extremely vocal of late, calling the macro set up a ‘perfect storm’ for Bitcoin, and suggests a wall of money is about to enter the Bitcoin space.
Raoul Pal leans on PlanB’s S2F model for his $1 million Bitcoin price prediction, and the Real Vision CEO is three years ahead of Peterson with the bullish prediction.
You’ll See Some Amazing Things Happen With Bitcoin in 2021
‘You’ll see some amazing things happen with Bitcoin in 2021,’ according to Timothy Peterson. The analyst, who goes by the Twitter handle @nsquaredcrypto, has been more vocal of late.
Peterson is clear in his conviction that Metcalfe’s Law tells us future Bitcoin prices. His model has been accurate in the past, and he is confident it will play out in the future.
Metcalfe’s Law might, however, contradict PlanB’s and Raoul Pal’s Bitcoin price predictions but they do use math formulas in their predictions too.
PlanB, Raoul Pal, and Timothy Peterson’s Metcalfe’s Law model all predict a Bitcoin to USD $1 million, and they all offer valid arguments for it.
Whoever is right or wrong, I’m sure it will be one hell of a ride.
Author: Tommy Limpitlaw
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A Bitcoiner since 2017 and a Bitcoin Maximalist since 2018, Tommy is our main writer and editor at Bitcoin Maximalist. Other than researching and writing about Bitcoin, Tommy loves spending time with his family and supporting his beloved Leeds United.