Bitcoin HODLing just reached a new all time high with 63% of Bitcoin wallets now HODLing Bitcoin for at least 12 months.
Bitcoin’s so-called ‘HODLwave’ – a metric that indicates the total unmoved BTC on the Bitcoin blockchain, broke it’s previous ATH in June and has steadily risen another 2% with quite a bit more expected to come.
Bitcoin HODLers Reach New All-Time High
Up 2% since the start of July, the HODLwave chart has been rising and setting new highs since breaking the previous ATH of 61% set back in January 2016.
Back then Bitcoin was priced at $388, and as we can see from the chart above it triggered a 23 month bull run which saw Bitcoin peak at almost $20,000 on December 17 2017.
The HODLwave chart is a bullish indicator because it reveals Bitcoin investors are deciding to HODL rather than speculate.
Speaking last month after HODLwave first broke 61%, CIO of Altana Digital Currency Fund, Alistair Milne said the HODLwave could even reach as high as 70%.
‘HODLing for a year or more just made a new ATH of 62%,’ said Milne. ‘Similar levels of HODL last seen during a 3-month consolidation at around $400 before starting a two-year bull run. Guesstimate that this cycle will peak around 70%?’
Since then, the price of Bitcoin has run from $9,187 to over $11,300 according to Binance.
Many On-Chain Metrics Indicate Bullish Bitcoin Patterns
It’s not just HODLwave that leads one to believe positive sentiment will remain around Bitcoin. Other on-chain metrics back up the bullish sentiment.
Market data firm Glassnode states the number of Bitcoin millionaires – addresses hodling at least $1 million has surged to 18,000, up by about 38%.
And while the metric is down about 30% from it’s ATH in December 2017, if we align the Bitcoin millionaire metric with the HODLwave chart, back in January 2016 when the HODLwave was at its previous ATH, the amount of Bitcoin millionaires was about 600. An increase of over 3000%.
Of course this is reflected in the BTC price too, but if the two charts follow a similar path, it suggests we might see an ATH of around $339,000 some time in the next two years.
It’s likely that we won’t see a similar increase because of the actual price, but even 2/3 of that would see a BTC price of around $226,000.
PlanBs Stock-to-Flow Still Well On Track
These two price fall between PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which he believes will see a price of around $288,000 at the peak of the bull cycle.
The S2F model, which measures the issuance of new bitcoins against the existing supply, and it boasts a 95% correlation to historical Bitcoin price data.
Although, PlanB does warn the model will fail at some stage, the quant analyst, who updates regularly on his Twitter feed, is confident the model will play out fully this cycle.
However, the S2F model is still absolutely on track, and many prominent Bitcoiners and legacy investors are bullish about the possibility of the S2F model playing out this cycle.
Bitcoin HODLers Will Be Rewarded for Their Patience
Many say that HODLing any asset is difficult, and something as volatile as Bitcoin isn’t the easiest of rides.
But the weak hands are all long gone, the HODLers of last resort are growing every cycle, and as the new HOLDwave ATH suggests, that the time for our patience, and some might say bravery, is about to be rewarded.
If the cycle pans out as expected, we should see some spectacular moves, and the best thing is that will attract many more weak hands, they just won’t know it until we’re on the other side of the cycle.
HODL Bitcoin and you will be rewarded.
Author: Pablo Clarke
Who is the CEO of Bitcoin?
There is no CEO. There is no central authority that directs or controls Bitcoin. It was created by a pseudonymous programmer Satoshi Nakamoto, but he gave it up to the community, and now all decisions are made by the hundreds of thousands of miners and nodes who work for the Bitcoin network.
Can you lose money on Bitcoin?
You certainly can lose money on Bitcoin. Many new investors see the gains Bitcoin has made and expect it to always be so. But the truth is, Bitcoin’s gains have come from holding on long term and riding the market. People expecting only gains, quickly lose faith when it crashes and lose money.
How can I get free bitcoins?
Nothing is really free, because even when you earn free Bitcoins you’re giving up your time, which is precious. But you can earn free Bitcoins. If you are a gamer, there are games like Bitcoin Bounty Hunt which allows you to shoot your way to Bitcoin riches. Or you can save your Bitcoin in an interest bearing account and earn some BTC interest. Be careful with these, and only go with legitimate companies, though.